Table 1 Examples of risk prediction models for asymptomatic individuals that have been validated in different populations

From: Risk prediction tools for cancer in primary care

 

Summary of performance in validation studies

Risk model

Discrimination (AUROC, 95% CI)

Calibration (O/E, 95% CI)

Breast ( Meads et al, 2012)

Colditz

0.63 (0.63–0.64)

1.01 (0.94–1.09)

Gail 2

0.63 (0.59–0.67)

0.95 (0.88–1.01)

Rosner and Colditz

0.57 (0.55–0.59)

0.96 (0.92–1.02)

Tyrer and Cusick

0.762 (0.70–0.82)a

1.09 (0.85–1.41)a

Lung ( Li et al, 2015)

Bach

0.81 (0.76–0.86)

0.88 (0.72–1.08)

Sptiz

0.78 (0.73–0.83)

3.75 (3.06–4.60)

LLP

0.79 (0.73–0.83)

1.12 (0.92–1.37)

PLCOM2012b

0.81 (0.76–0.86)

1.03 (0.87–1.23)

Colorectal ( Win et al, 2012)

Harvard Cancer Risk Index

Men: 0.71 (0.68–0.74) Women: 0.67 (0.64–0.70)

—

Imperiale

0.74 (SD=0.06)

—

Freedman

Men: 0.61 (0.60–0.62) Women: 0.61 (0.59–0.62)

Men: 0.99 (0.95–1.04) Women: 1.05 (0.98–1.11)

Ma

0.64 (0.61–0.67)

1.09 (0.98–1.23)

Prostate ( Louie et al, 2014)

Prostataclass

0.79 (0.75–0.84)

—

Finne

0.74 (0.70–0.77)

—

Karakiewcz

0.74 (0.69–0.80)

—

Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial

0.66 (0.63–0.68)

—

Chun

0.76 (0.72–0.79)

—

ERSPC RC3c

0.79 (0.77–0.81)

—

Melanoma ( Usher-Smith et al, 2014)

Fortes

0.79 (0.70–0.86)

—

Williams

0.70 (0.64–0.77)

 
  1. Abbreviations: AUROC=area under receiver operator characteristic curve; CI=confidence interval; LLP, liverpool lung project; O/E=ratio of observed to expected events.
  2. aIn a high-risk sample.
  3. bThe 2012 version of the prostate, lung, colorectal, and ovarian cancer screening trial model.
  4. cEuropean Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator 3.
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