Fig. 3
From: Stabilised frequency of extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole under 1.5 °C warming
Temporal evolution of multi-model ensemble mean changes under the RCP2.6 scenario. a GMT anomalies (black curve) and zonal temperature gradient anomalies at the equatorial Indian Ocean (red curve) referenced to the pre-industrial condition (1869–1899) and averaged over 31-year sliding windows from 1869 to 2099 period. Their 90% confidence intervals are indicated by grey and light orange shades, respectively, based on a Student’s t-distribution. The value near the red circle indicates the average over the 31 years centred at 1.5 °C warming (light green-shaded zone). b The same as a, but for the extreme pIOD frequency (purple curve, events per century). The 90% confidence intervals (light purple shades) are estimated based on Poisson distribution (see Methods section). The value near the purple circle indicates the average over the 31 years centred at 1.5 °C warming (light green-shaded zone). Results are based on 13 available models. c Relationship between the GMT anomalies and the multi-model mean zonal temperature gradient anomalies during the period of transient increase in CO2. The correlation coefficient, P-value and slope are all indicated. d The same as c, but for the extreme pIOD frequency
