Fig. 5
From: Stabilised frequency of extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole under 1.5 °C warming
Future changes in climate extremes under different emission scenarios. The plots shown are based on nine CMIP5 models which can generate both extreme pIOD3 and extreme El Niño23 events under the RCP2.6 emission scenario, over the time period from 2050 to 2099, focusing on boreal winter (DJF) seasons when El Niño events mature. The black dots indicate extreme El Niño events; the black dot with red outline indicates an extreme El Niño preceded by an extreme pIOD event in the same year, similar to 1997. a, b Occurrences under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. The difference in the two emission scenarios is that the GMT stabilises after 2050 under RCP2.6, but continues to increase after 2050 under RCP8.5. The frequency (events per century) is indicated in each panel, with the 90% confidence interval based on a Poisson distribution provided
