Fig. 1

Overview of the study design. The study is based on three sources of data on global cropland expansion, intensification and biodiversity. Both maps of cropland expansion potential and intensification potential are simulated for 17 major agricultural crops at 30 arc sec resolution and integrate information on biophysical constraints (e.g. topography, soil quality, climate change) and socio–economic conditions (e.g. population growth, consumption patterns). The integrated cropland expansion potential is developed by a model of near-future agricultural suitability, while the integrated cropland intensification potential is developed by a dynamic crop growth model. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the world economy, applied to two scenarios of cropland expansion and intensification until 2030, quantifies the impact on agricultural markets in terms of crop production, price, trade and consumption. We use a reference scenario up to 2030 for reference that carries forward current trends in population growth, gross domestic product and trade policies. Endemism richness integrates IUCN range maps of 19,978 species of mammals, birds and amphibians into a global biodiversity metric aggregated at 55-km resolution of an equal-area grid. This metric combines species richness with a measure of endemism (i.e. the range sizes of species within an assemblage) and thus indicates the relative importance of a site for conservation. Hotspot analysis, using Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA) and quantile overlay, identifies hotspots where global biodiversity is most affected by near-future cropland expansion and intensification