Fig. 3: Transmission dynamics by varying introduction time.
From: Interactions between timing and transmissibility explain diverse flavivirus dynamics in Fiji
Simulated ZIKV outbreaks using the maximum a posteriori parameter set and adjusting the midpoint of the introduction of ZIKV infectious individuals. Changing the introduction time alone can vary resulting outbreak dynamics between low level circulation over multiple years to large single-season epidemics. The modelled DENV-3 infections during the 2013-14 epidemic is reproduced here for comparison. Introduction time centred around October 2014 (a), November 2014 (b), January 2015 (c), February 2015 (d). Blue line, model simulation for the prevalence of ZIKV infections (not cases). Green line, modelled DENV-3 2013–14 infections. Pink line, introduction of infectious individuals. The date of the midpoint of the introduction function is displayed in pink. The attack rate is equal to the sum of all ZIKV infections divided by the population size at the start of the outbreak, 342,000 people.
