Fig. 1: Evolution of critical material prices and costs of EVs and ICEVs from 2020 to 2060 under different scenarios.
From: China’s electric vehicle and climate ambitions jeopardized by surging critical material prices
a The illustration of the key cause-effect links of the study, b Price evolution of the four critical materials over 2020–2060, c Cost evolution of EV by sub-sector, d Cost evolution of ICEV by sub-sector. BLS refers to the base-line scenario in which the uptake pace of EVs will fulfil the requirement of the carbon neutrality target and the EV cost will fall rapidly in line with its historical and forecasted development trend in China as reported in the existing literature; High scenario in which a rapid increase in critical material price affects EV costs; Medium scenario in which a steady increase in critical material price affects EV costs; Low scenario in which a slight increase in critical material price mainly affects EV costs during the middle and later periods of the forecast. All EVs in this figure are equipped with NCM622 LIBs; and the change in prices of critical materials is compared to the corresponding prices in 2015.
