Fig. 3: Correlation between estimated neutralising antibody titres and vaccine effectiveness.

Correlation between estimated neutralising antibody titres (accounting for vaccine used, variant studied and time since vaccination) and clinical data for A vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, B vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID-19. C Correlation between vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic and severe COVID-19. Solid lines indicate the predicted relationship taken from ref. ⁴, and shading indicates 95% CI of the model estimates. X-axis confidence intervals in (A) and (B) represent the degree of confidence in the estimate neutralising antibody titre. A breakdown of the relationship shown in panels (A) and (B) by variant and study type is shown in Supplementary Fig. S1. Figure shows effectiveness following mRNA-1273 (red), BNT162b2 (blue), any mRNA (purple) and ChAdOx-nCov-1 (pink) vaccination against pre-Delta (pink background) Delta (blue background) and Omicron (green background) variants.