Fig. 3: Likelihood of synchronous events for active/inactive Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation phases.

The likelihood of the occurrence of synchronous events (P(EREs)) is analyzed for active (blue) and inactive (red) Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) phases (as defined here23) in the regions of Fig. 2a: a equatorial Indian Ocean, b Bay of Bengal, c Maritime Continent, d South Asia, e Western Pacific, and f North India-China. The dashed line illustrates the likelihood of synchronous events estimated from a null model for synchronous events being randomly selected (i.e. by construction 0.1 as the top 10% of all days are defined as days of maximum synchronization using the community-specific synchronous rainfall extremes index, see “Methods”).