Fig. 5: Diversity and invasion risk of potential phytopathogenic fungi by 2100 under future climate change scenarios.
From: Global diversity and biogeography of potential phytopathogenic fungi in a changing world
a Predicted change in phytopathogenic fungal diversity under future climate-change scenarios. A diversity-climate model was constructed by GLMs using ppSH richness and 19 climate variables. This model was used to predict future ppSH richness across all land cover types, or within main land cover types, or from main habitats, under four different climate scenarios. Predictive models were cross-validated (CV) by common Pearson correlation test using 2/3 samples as a model training dataset and 1/3 as a validation dataset. All climate variables were derived from WorldClim2 using a 5 min (~10 km) resolution. The future climate data were derived from eleven different CMIP6 downscaled global change models (GCMs; See detailed information in Methods. NB—The climate data of model FIO-ESM-2-0 under the SSP370 scenario in 2080-2100 are not available). The relative change in ppSH richness under different GCMs compared to current climate conditions were averaged. Plot axis labels reflect, shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP); sustainability (SSP126); middle of the road (SSP245); regional rivalry (SSP370); and fossil-fuelled development (SSP585) scenarios. Box plots indicate median (middle line) with 25th, and 75th percentile (box), and 5th and 95th percentile (whiskers). n = 11 for SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585; n = 10 for SSP370. n represents the number of GCMs. The map was generated in the R language. b Mean invasion risk under different future climate scenarios. After constructing the invasion-climate model, the future invasion risks were predicted using the climate data derived from eleven different CMIP6 downscaled GCMs, and the invasion risks under different GCMs compared to current climate were averaged (mean ± s.d.; n = 11 for SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585; n = 10 for SSP370. n represents the number of GCMs). The pie charts represent the increased/decreased invasion risk area. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.
