Table 3 Parameter estimates for the spike antibody dynamic model

From: Randomized controlled trial of molnupiravir SARS-CoV-2 viral and antibody response in at-risk adult outpatients

Parameter

Estimate (95%CI)

IIV (%CV)

δ (d-1)

0.095 (0.089, 0.102)

58.2

A(0) (log10 U/mL)

3.365 (3.331, 3.399)

39.3

Additive error (log10 U/mL)

0.164

–

βsex

0.942 (0.886, 1.001)

–

βvac

0.772 (0.608, 0.979)

–

βmol

0.781 (0.712, 0.856)

–

  1. The slope, δ, is the first-order increase rate in spike antibody, whereas the intercept (A(0)) the baseline spike antibody level. Inter-individual variability (IIV) was assumed to follow a log-normal distribution and estimated for δ and A(0). Additive error is the variance of the residual error term. The following covariates all significantly (p < 0.01) improved model fit: βsex is the fractional change in A(0) in males. βvac is the fractional change in A(0) in participants who were not full vaccinated. βmol is the fractional change in δ in participants receiving molnupiravir. The final model describing antibody with time (A(t)) was therefore:
  2. A(t) = A(0) βsexImale βvacIunvacc exp{- δ t Imol βmol},
  3. where Imale is an indicator for male participants, Iunvacc is an indicator for participants who were not fully vaccinated, and Imol is an indicator for participants who took molnupiravir.
Back to article page