Fig. 2: Forecast probability of an event occurring in the next 50 years for the 93 fault segments.

The values are the medians of the posterior forecast probabilities. a World map; b San Andreas fault segments and surroundings; c central China; d New Zealand. Scale bars in b–d are approximate. ArcGIS software by Esri was used to create the map. Basemap data sources: ETOPO elevation model (ETOPO 2022, 60 Arc-Second Resolution, Bedrock elevation geotiff)50, GNS Science, Natural Earth, USGS. Map projections are WGS 1984 Web Mercator (auxiliary sphere), WKID 1857.