Fig. 5: Retrospective forecast of the occurrence time of the last earthquake. | Nature Communications

Fig. 5: Retrospective forecast of the occurrence time of the last earthquake.

From: Earthquake forecasting from paleoseismic records

Fig. 5

Fault ID is numbered as per the list in Table 1. The forecasts from the model-averaging (MA) approach and the Poisson process are presented here. Markers show median and 95% credible intervals of the forecasts. We centred the estimated values by subtracting the mean occurrence time of the last earthquake in the paleoseismic records. 95% CI 95% credible interval.

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