Fig. 5: Absolute risk reduction: Short-term and lifetime risk. | Nature Communications

Fig. 5: Absolute risk reduction: Short-term and lifetime risk.

From: MSGene: a multistate model using genetic risk and the electronic health record applied to lifetime risk of coronary artery disease

Fig. 5

We display the relationship between remaining lifetime and 10-year risk. Each ray represents an age group, in which individuals are parameterized by their short- (10-year) and long-term (lifetime) risk, and colored by genomic risk in SD from mean. We display the lifetime absolute risk reduction as computed in Equation RR and stratified by age rays, and colored by genetic risk. a For an individual at the top genetic risk at age 40, MSGene predicted 10-year risk is roughly equivalent to an individual at the lowest genetic risk at age 70 (3.8% vs 4.2%, SE 0.01). However, the MSGene projected lifetime benefit is directly proportional to lifetime risk (b), and more than twice that of a high-risk individual at age 70 (5.0 vs 2.3%, SEM 0.02). c Marginalized across starting states and covariate profiles, we project absolute risk difference (%) under a treated and untreated setting. At age 40, this ranges from a median of 5.8% (SD 0.01) to 0.8% (SD 0.01) at age 79. SEM standard error of mean, RR relative risk, SD CAD-PRS SD.

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