Fig. 1: Observed and simulated trends in mesoscale sea surface temperature-latent heat flux (SST-LHF) coupling.

Global distribution of the decadal trends of mesoscale SST-LHF coupling strength as derived from the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) (a) and high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM-HR) (b) during 1979–2022. The coupling strength is computed using the linear regression coefficient between high-pass filtered monthly SST and LHF (Methods) with trends significant at a 99% confidence level indicated by black dots. c Composites of SST (color shading, °C) and LHF (contours, W/m²) anomalies associated with mesoscale oceanic eddies during historical periods (1956-2005) in CESM-HR. Shown are winter season mean anomalies in anticyclonic warm minus cyclonic cold eddy composites within four western boundary current (WBC) regions (outlined by red boxes in a, b). The white circle represents one eddy radius and the white dot marks the eddy center. d Mesoscale SST-LHF coupling strength (W/m²/°C) during historical (HIS, 1956–2005) and future (RCP, 2063-2100) periods in CESM-HR for warm (red) and cold (blue) eddies averaged across four WBC regions. The coupling strength is computed using the linear regression coefficient between SST and LHF anomalies within twice the radius of eddy composites. e Differences in mesoscale SST-LHF coupling strength between future and historical periods in CESM-HR for warm (red bars) and cold (blue bars) eddies in the Kuroshio Extension (KE), the Gulf Stream (GS), the Agulhas Return Current (ARC) and the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence Region (BMC) regions, with fractional differences labeled atop the respective bars. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.