Fig. 4: Estimation of dengue infections and inference of time-varying transmission parameters in four urban metropolitans.

a–d Confirmed dengue cases (yellow bars) and estimated monthly total infections (blue bars) in four urban metropolitans. Distributions were obtained from 300 ensemble members. The blue bars represent medians and whiskers show 95% CIs. e–h Distribution of dengue transmission rates. i–l Distribution of dengue effective reproduction number. (m–p) Distribution of dengue force of infection. The center and box boundaries represent the median (50th), 75th, and 25th percentiles, respectively. In the box plots, the poles of the whiskers represent the distance from the 75th percentile to the maxima and the 25th percentile to the minima, respectively. The posterior estimate for the day is also displayed. The distribution is derived from 300 ensembled members.