Fig. 2: Population suppression predicted by the mosquito metapopulation model.
From: The potential of gene drives in malaria vector species to control malaria in African environments
a The suppression of the total number of biting females in each area in the years following gene drive releases at time zero in all vector species groups. The boxes represent the interquartile ranges across 25 parameter sets that differed in both dispersal (\({\rho }_{n}\,\&\,{\rho }_{b}\)) and population size parameters (\({K}_{1,a}\,\&\,{K}_{2,a}\)) (see Methods and Supplementary Material), with 5 replicate simulations per parameter set. The white lines in the boxes show the medians, the whiskers represent 1.5 times the interquartile ranges, and the individual points are outliers. b–d. The sensitivity of these results to (b) average population size, (c) population density (the number of populations in the simulated area), and (d) the mosquito dispersal propensity. In each plot, the points show average 12 year suppression across simulations sharing the same focal parameter, and we highlight the results of five simulation areas (coloured; the grey lines/points represent the remaining eleven simulation areas). All simulations followed the default release strategy, described in the text, of 1000 males released in 50 localities in all three species groups.
