Fig. 5: Canada data-driven fire prediction for 2023.

Left: A chiclets plot displays fire predictions over time in terms of the number of forecasted fires. For observations, this is based on the daily count of MODIS active fires in the region. For forecasts, it is calculated by summing the probabilities across the area. The x-axis corresponds to specific dates throughout the year, while the y-axis represents either the observations or the forecast lead time (often referred to as the forecast horizon). The vertical color coherence allows for quick identification of the time windows of predictability associated with observed fire activity. The total burned area per month (circles) is shown as a reference to indicate the severity of the fires, though it is not used in the prediction. Right panels: Predictions from the data-driven fire model for May 13, 2023, in Western Canada, and May 30, 2023, in Eastern Canada, with superimposed MODIS and VIIRS active fire detections on those days. The areas shown on the maps correspond to those used to generate the chiclets plots.