Fig. 1: State of ENSO prediction skill for DL models and dynamical models.

a, b The ACC of DL models (thick red and pink lines) and dynamical models (black and other colors lines) from 1982 to 2018 for year-round (a) and for the initial month in March (b). c–e The seasonality prediction skill with shading of ACC during 1982-2018 for 3D-Geoformer (c), CNN (d), and dynamic-model mean (e) forecasts, respectively. The shading around the lines denotes the 95% confidence interval, based on the bootstrap method (see “Methods”). Note that the intervals of DL models are relatively small, making them less visually apparent in the figures.