Extended Data Fig. 1: Covarying components of winter-mean SAT and SLP anomalies between ERA-Interim and the multi-model ensemble mean of AMIP-FACTS.

a–d, Homogeneous and heterogeneous regression anomalies of detrended DJF-mean SAT (shading) and SLP (contours at 0.5 hPa intervals, dashed if negative). Anomalies in ERA-Interim (a, c) and the AMIP-FACTS ensemble mean (b, d) are regressed onto standardized ECERA (a, d) and \(\overline {EC} _{FACTS}\) (b, c). e-f, Detrended DJF-mean SAT (shading) and SLP (contours at 0.5 hPa intervals, dashed if negative) anomalies in ERA-Interim (e) and AMIP-FACTS ensemble mean (f) regressed onto the detrended DJF-mean BK SIC anomaly (sign reversed). Twelve members from each of the seven AGCMs (total of 84 members) were used in the multi-model ensemble mean of AMIP-FACTS (see Methods in M19 for detail). Hatching indicates the statistical confidence for SAT anomalies exceeding 95% based on a t-test.