Extended Data Fig. 9: Sensitivity of the demographic impact analyses shown in Figs. 3 and 4 to uncertainty regarding the energetic costs of maintenance.

Projections using our best estimate of m = 0.077 MJ kg⁻¹ d⁻¹ are contrasted against projections using the upper boundary estimate identified in Supplementary Fig. 3, m = 0.090 MJ kg⁻¹ d⁻¹. a, Demographic impact hindcasts: as in Fig. 3, but now for m = 0.090 MJ kg⁻¹ d⁻¹; b, Demographic impact forecasts: as in Fig. 4, but now for m = 0.090 MJ kg⁻¹ d⁻¹; c, Differences between the projected crossings of the first (−20%) impact threshold when using m = 0.090 MJ kg⁻¹ d⁻¹ instead of m = 0.077 MJ kg⁻¹ d⁻¹ (that is, the difference between panel b & Fig. 4). Magenta: cub recruitment; blue: adult male survival; red: adult female survival. Crosses indicate cases where no impacts are predicted within the modelled timeframe using either value of m; asterisks mark cases where impacts occur with m = 0.090 MJ kg⁻¹ d⁻¹ but not with m = 0.077 MJ kg⁻¹ d⁻¹, with the bar showing the minimum difference between the two scenarios in these cases. Green background: SIE subpopulations; red background: DIE subpopulations; blue background: CIE subpopulations.