Extended Data Fig. 10: Uncertainty of the projected demographic impacts due to climate variability.
From: Fasting season length sets temporal limits for global polar bear persistence
Stars show the estimated years of first impact on cub recruitment (magenta), adult male survival (blue), and adult female survival (red) from Fig. 4, that is, for our baseline assumption of a 30% critical sea ice extent threshold, and body masses, body lengths, and energy usage as in WH89-96. Error bars around the stars illustrate the uncertainty due to climate variability by indicating the 25-75 percentile range of the earliest impact years from the CESM1 model ensembles. Year of first impact is defined as in Fig. 4.
