Extended Data Fig. 4: Estimation of fasting impact thresholds for adult females without dependent offspring and for adult females with dependent yearlings.

Panels follow the same logical outline as in Fig. 2, where impact threshold for adult males and adult females with cubs are estimated. (a-c) Fast-initiating masses and lengths of a, adult females without dependent offspring (green crosses) and of b-c, adult females with dependent yearlings (purple crosses), shown relative to DEB-estimates for the number of days to death by starvation; starvation times for females with yearlings are calculated once assuming full lactation until death (b), and once assuming no lactation when fasting (c). d, e, Cumulative distribution of estimated starvation times, and linear regressions through the 5^th-95^th percentile of these distributions estimating (d) a survival impact threshold for solitary adult females (255 days) beyond which mortality increases by ~ 0.4% for each additional fasting day (regression slope), and (e) lower (dark purple) and upper (light purple) boundaries for the survival impact thresholds of females with yearlings (185-232 days), of which the lower estimate also doubles as a yearling recruitment impact threshold. f, g, Sensitivity analyses illustrating the dependence of impact thresholds on the fast-initiating masses of bears – obtained by adjusting all WH_89-96 masses upwards or downwards by a specified percentage within biologically reasonable bounds (cf. Extended Data Figs. 5 and 7 and Supplementary Fig. 5 for details).