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Impacts of climate change-related human migration on infectious diseases

Nature Climate Change volume 14, pages 793–802 (2024)Cite this article

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Abstract

Health consequences arising from climate change are threatening to offset advances made to reduce the damage of infectious diseases, which vary by region and the resilience of the local health system. Here we discuss how climate change-related migrations and infectious disease burden are linked through various processes, such as the expansion of pathogens into non-endemic areas, overcrowding in new informal settlements, and the increased proximity of disease vectors and susceptible human populations. Countries that are predicted to have the highest burden are those that have made the least contribution to climate change. Further studies are needed to generate robust evidence on the potential consequences of climate change-related human movements and migration, as well as identify effective and bespoke short- and long-term interventions.

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Fig. 1: Share of global cumulative CO2 emissions and vulnerability index per country.
Fig. 2: Trend per continent of the proportion of disease burden and the GDP per capita of countries.
Fig. 3: The different types of climate-driven human migration and their associated factors and confounders.
Fig. 4: Distribution of IDPs by country and hazard, comparison with outward migrations and country-wise net migration against its vulnerability.

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Data availability

All the data used to produce figures in this paper are available at https://github.com/kraemer-lab/Climate-Migration-Infectious-Diseases-Perspective.

Code availability

All the codes used to produce figures in this paper are available at https://github.com/kraemer-lab/Climate-Migration-Infectious-Diseases-Perspective.

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Acknowledgements

M.U.G.K. acknowledges funding from The Rockefeller Foundation, Google.org, the Oxford Martin School Pandemic Genomics programme (also B.G.), European Union’s Horizon Europe programme projects MOOD (874850) and E4Warning (101086640), the John Fell Fund, a Branco Weiss Fellowship and Wellcome Trust grants 225288/Z/22/Z, 226052/Z/22/Z and 228186/Z/23/Z (also B.G.), United Kingdom Research and Innovation (APP8583) and the Medical Research Foundation (MRF-RG-ICCH-2022-100069). The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Commission or the other funders. CERI acknowledges support from grants from the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC), the National Department of Health, Rockefeller Foundation (HTH 017), the Abbott Pandemic Defense Coalition (APDC), the National Institute of Health USA (U01 AI151698) for the United World Antivirus Research Network (UWARN), the INFORM Africa project through IHVN (U54 TW012041) and the eLwazi Open Data Science Platform and Coordinating Center (U2CEB032224), the SAMRC South African mRNA Vaccine Consortium (SAMVAC), European Union supported by the Global Health EDCTP3 Joint Undertaking and its members, European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme (101046041), the Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Umbrella Program (HEPR Program), managed by the World Bank Group (TF0B8412), the GIZ commissioned by the Government of the Federal Republic of Germany, the UK’s Medical Research Foundation (MRF-RG-ICCH-2022-100069), and the Wellcome Trust for the global health project (228186/Z/23/Z). We gratefully acknowledge the CLIMADE Consortium (CLIMate Amplified Diseases and Epidemics, https://climade.health/), through which this work and collaboration is made possible. CLIMADE was set up to investigate and respond to the devastating intersection of climate change and infectious diseases globally. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Department of Health and Social Care or European Commission or any other funder. J.L.-H.T. is supported by a Yeotown Scholarship from New College, University of Oxford. R.E.P. is supported by the EPSRC Centre for Doctoral Training in Health Data Science (EP/S02428X/1). S.B. is supported by the Clarendon Scholarship and 603 St Edmund Hall College, University of Oxford and NERC DTP (grant number NE/S007474/1). R.P.D.I. is supported by the Oxford-NaturalMotion Graduate Scholarship from the University of Oxford.

Author information

Author notes

  1. These authors contributed equally: Joseph L.-H. Tsui, Rosario Evans Pena, Monika Moir.

  2. These authors jointly supervised this work: Tulio de Oliveira, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Houriiyah Tegally, Prathyush Sambaturu.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

    Joseph L.-H. Tsui, Rosario Evans Pena, Rhys P. D. Inward, Sumali Bajaj, Bernardo Gutierrez, Abhishek Dasgupta, Moritz U. G. Kraemer & Prathyush Sambaturu

  2. Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

    Rosario Evans Pena

  3. Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation, School for Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa

    Monika Moir, Eduan Wilkinson, Jenicca Poongavanan, Tulio de Oliveira & Houriiyah Tegally

  4. Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

    Rhys P. D. Inward, Bernardo Gutierrez, Moritz U. G. Kraemer & Prathyush Sambaturu

  5. Kwazulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform (KRISP), Nelson R Mandela School of Medicine, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa

    James Emmanuel San & Tulio de Oliveira

  6. Duke Human Vaccine Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA

    James Emmanuel San

  7. Colegio de Ciencias Biológicas y Ambientales, Universidad San Francisco de Quito USFQ, Quito, Ecuador

    Bernardo Gutierrez

  8. Doctoral Training Centre, Mathematical, Physical and Life Sciences Division, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

    Abhishek Dasgupta

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Contributions

M.U.G.K., H.T., P.S., J.L.-H.T., R.E.P., M.M., R.P.D.I., E.W., J.E.S., J.P., S.B., B.G., A.D. and T.d.O. conceptualized the study. J.L.-H.T., R.E.P., M.M. and P.S. analysed and investigated data and made visualizations. P.S., M.U.G.K., H.T., J.L.-H.T., R.E.P. and M.M. wrote the initial draft of the paper. P.S., M.U.G.K., H.T., J.L.-H.T., R.E.P., M.M., R.P.D.I., E.W., J.E.S., J.P., S.B., B.G., A.D. and T.d.O. contributed to editing and reviewing the text. M.U.G.K., H.T. and P.S. oversaw and supervised the project. M.U.G.K., H.T. and T.d.O. acquired funding for the study.

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Houriiyah Tegally or Prathyush Sambaturu.

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Tsui, J.LH., Pena, R.E., Moir, M. et al. Impacts of climate change-related human migration on infectious diseases. Nat. Clim. Chang. 14, 793–802 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02078-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02078-z

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