Fig. 3: Effect of land use and climate change on biodiversity at two temporal scales.
From: Anthropogenic climate and land-use change drive short- and long-term biodiversity shifts across taxa
a,b, Environmental parameter estimates (mean values) (a) and associated uncertainty (standard deviation) (b) for the association analysis between changes in species richness (SR), beta diversity (BD) and CTI of three different taxon communities in Great Britain (response variable) and the changes of land use and climate, the interaction of land-use change and climate change, baseline conditions of land use and climate, baseline biodiversity (for SR and BD) and microclimatic heterogeneity (explanatory variables) over the long (1960s to 2010s) and short (1990s to 2010s) temporal scales. Coloured blocks in a represent the direction of the parameter estimate of each explanatory variable over the response (purple is positive, orange is negative), with gradient bars emanating from dashed zero lines within each box indicating the size of the fixed effect (Supplementary Table 2). Estimates are standardized within each taxon, biodiversity metric and temporal scale—based on equation (4) (Methods). Grey blocks indicate that (1) there was no improved grasslands category in the 1960s land-cover dataset and (2) we did not apply baseline-CTI in the models corresponding to this biodiversity metric. White blocks mean that no associations were found (that is, the 95% posterior distribution of the estimated mean of the coefficient included zero). For ease of interpretation, we have included the direction of the overall estimated biodiversity change at the top of the figure. Note that the compacted uncertainty table in b mirrors the table for the parameter estimates in a. Microclimate represents only the modern period.
