Analysis of global datasets indicates that dry to wet transitions in soil wetness over regions spanning around 500 km can increase the size and rainfall intensity of organized thunderstorms around the world. Therefore, observations of soil moisture could improve storm forecasts and support adaptation to changing hazards under climate change.
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References
Klein, C. & Taylor, C. M. Dry soils can intensify mesoscale convective systems. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 117, 21132–21137 (2020). This paper reports how dry soil patches that extend over 200 km can increase the size and longevity of extreme storms in West Africa.
Taylor, C. M. et al. Nowcasting tracks of severe convective storms in West Africa from observations of land surface state. Environ. Res. Lett. 17, 034016 (2022). This paper reports how land surface observations are used to forecast extreme storms in West Africa.
Feng, Z. et al. A global high-resolution mesoscale convective system database using satellite-derived cloud tops, surface precipitation, and tracking. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 126, e2020JD034202 (2021). This paper describes the global storm track dataset used to identify mature thunderstorms.
Entekhabi, D., Das, N., Njoku, E. G., Johnson, J. T. & Shi, J. SMAP L3 radar/radiometer global daily 9 km EASE-Grid soil moisture, version 3. NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center https://doi.org/10.5067/7KKNQ5UURM2W (2016). This dataset contains measurements of soil moisture from the SMAP satellite used in the analysis of surface state.
ASCAT soil moisture at 25 km swath grid in NRT - metop. EUMETSAT https://data.eumetsat.int/product/EO:EUM:DAT:METOP:SOMO25 (2009). This dataset contains measurements of soil moisture from the ASCAT satellite used in the analysis of surface state.
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This is a summary of: Barton, E. J. et al. Soil moisture gradients strengthen mesoscale convective systems by increasing wind shear. Nat. Geosci. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01666-8 (2025).
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Soil moisture gradients strengthen intense thunderstorms. Nat. Geosci. 18, 287–288 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01676-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01676-6
