Extended Data Fig. 4: Different subtypes have distinct probabilities of recurrence.

a, Average probability of experiencing a distant relapse (defined as the probability of having a distant relapse at any point followed by any other transition) or cancer-related death for the high-risk ER⁺ IntClust (IC) subtypes (IC1 n = 134, IC6 n = 81, IC9 n = 134, IC2 n = 69) relative to IC3 (n = 269), the ER⁺ subgroup with the best prognosis. This analysis was restricted to ER⁺/HER2⁻ cases, which represent the vast majority for each of these subtypes. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals around the mean. b, As for a, but showing the average probability of experiencing distant recurrence or cancer-related death after a local recurrence (IC1 n = 21, IC6 n = 10, IC9 n = 21, IC2 n = 13, IC3 n = 30). c, Average probability of recurrence (distant relapse or cancer-specific death) after locoregional relapse for all patients in each of the 11 IntClust subtypes. d, Median time until an additional relapse (distant recurrence or cancer-specific death) after local recurrence for all patients in each of the 11 IntClust subtypes (n = 270). This has been computed using a Kaplan–Meier approach with competing risks of progression and nonmalignant death. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals around the median time. Asterisks denote situations in which the median time cannot be computed because fewer than 50% of the patients relapsed. This analysis was done with the molecular dataset. e, Average probability of cancer-related death after distant recurrence for all patients by subtype. f, As for d, except that the median time until cancer-specific death after distant recurrence is shown (n = 596). g, Mean probabilities of relapse after surgery and after five and ten disease-free years (see Methods and Supplementary Table 4) for the patients in each of the four IHC subtypes. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals. The number of patients in each group is indicated. h–k, As for c–f, but for the IHC subtypes (same sample sizes). l, As for g, but for the PAM50 subtypes. The number of patients in each group is indicated. m–p, As for h–k, but for the PAM50 subtypes (with the same sample sizes, except for p where n = 593).