Extended Data Fig. 8: Long-term trend in all pairwise community combinations shows the same trends as using the first sampling year (2000) as the baseline and when using presence–absence data only.

a–c, Long-term trends in avian community composition in natural forests (a), diversified agriculture (b) and intensive agricultures (c) were quantified using all pairwise temporal Bray–Curtis comparisons within each transect, rather than using the year 2000 as a baseline. This approach was used to validate trends and test for potential bias as a result of using year 2000 as the baseline. In each plot, black lines depict the mean temporal trend in Bray–Curtis community similarity from 2000 to 2018 modelled as a first-order random walk process in INLA. Trends are centred around zero, the shading represents 95% Bayesian credible intervals. Positive and negative deviation from the zero line indicates the presence of long-term trends. Values on the x axis denote the temporal distance, ranging from 1 to 17 years. n_spp. = 510, n_transects = 44, n_years = 18. d, Long-term shifts were based on presence–absence data, rather than abundance-weighted data (Fig. 1a); both measures show qualitatively similar results. Community similarity in each year compared to the first year of study (2000) across three land-cover types. Points depict the mean community similarity measured as Bray–Curtis similarity for each transect to itself in the first year of this study; error bars represent the s.e.m. for each land-cover type in each year. n_spp. = 510, n_transects = 44, n_years = 18.