Fig. 5: Ensemble forecast results of Pangu-Weather.
From: Accurate medium-range global weather forecasting with 3D neural networks
The RMSE of the ensemble mean forecast (lower is better) for three upper-air variables (Z500, Q500 and U500) and two surface variables (T2M and U10). We also followed a recent work35 to plot two metrics, the CRPS (lower is better) and the spread-skill ratio (an ideal ensemble model produces spread-skill ratios of 1.0, shown as the dashed lines), which further demonstrate the properties of our ensemble forecast results. Here, Z500, Q500 and U500 indicate the geopotential, temperature and the u-component of wind speed at 500 hPa, respectively. T2M indicates the 2-m temperature and U10 indicates the u-component of 10-m wind speed.
