Fig. 5: Biochemical factors differentiate participants with LC from the matched controls.

All data shown represent a matched subset of participants (n = 40 (HC), n = 39 (CC) and n = 79 (LC)) selected using the Gale–Shapley procedure on demographic factors (Extended Data Fig. 9a). a, PCA projection of participant data comprising cytokine, flow cytometry and various antibody responses (anti-SARS-CoV-2, non-SARS-CoV-2 viral antibodies and autoantibodies (aAb)). Marginal histograms display data density along each principal component dimension. b, Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis from unsupervised k-NN classification. AUC and 95% CI intervals (DeLong’s method) are reported. c, McFadden’s pseudo-R² values are reported as a bar plot for each data segment. An integrated, parsimonious McFadden’s pseudo-R² is reported for the final classification model (all). d, LASSO regression identifies a minimal set of immunological features differentiating participants with LC from others. Unlabelled dots are significant predictive features that were not included in the final LASSO regression model. Dots are coloured according to individual data segments: orange, flow; blue, plasma cytokines; pink, viral epitopes; green, anti-SARS-CoV-2; yellow, autoantibodies. Flow, flow cytometry; FPR, false-positive rate; T_CM, T central memory cells; TPR, true-positive rate.