Extended Data Fig. 4: Changes in ecosystem stability by 2050 across the Amazon based on annual rainfall projected by CMIP6 models.
(a) Changes in stability classes estimated using an ensemble with the five CMIP6 models that include vegetation modules (coupled for climate-vegetation feedbacks) for two emission scenarios (Shared Socio-economic Pathways - SSPs). (b) Changes in stability classes estimated using an ensemble with all 33 CMIP6 models for the same emission scenarios. Stability changes may occur between stable forest (F), stable savanna (S) and bistable (B) classes, based on the bistability range of 1,000 – 1,800 mm in annual rainfall, estimated from current rainfall conditions (see Extended Data Fig. 1). Projections are based on climate models from the 6th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). SSP2-4.5 is a low-emission scenario of future global warming and SSP5-8.5 is a high-emission scenario. The five coupled models analysed separately in (a) were: EC-Earth3-Veg, GFDL-ESM4, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, TaiESM1 and UKESM1-0-LL (Supplementary Information Table 1).
