Fig. 2: Cross-neutralization and immune waning dynamics.
a, Fold resistance induced by mutational differences against antibodies of distinct epitope classes at indicated sites. b, Relative potency IC50(DMS) of antibodies of specific epitope classes in the DMS data. The solid horizontal lines show the respective average IC50(DMS). The dotted horizontal line marks the average across all epitope classes. c, Fold resistance to neutralization against immunity-inducing variants (on y axis) for antibodies of epitope classes A, B and C. Asterisks indicate spike pseudo groups; that is, lineages with identical mutations in the spike protein. d, Predicted neutralization probability of the Delta variant (blue range, left panel) and the Omicron variant (BA.1) (orange range, right panel) after exposure to the Wuhan-Hu-1 antigen PNeut(t, Wuhan-Hu-1, Delta). Ranges depict minimum–maximum ranges resulting from pharmacokinetic variability. The corresponding clinical vaccine efficacy is also indicated (blue and orange markers, central estimate; vertical line, 95% confidence interval; horizontal line, range of time post vaccination as stated in the original study; see Supplementary Table 5).
