Fig. 4: Historical effective population size for silver birch.

Top, original figure with incorrect mutation rate; bottom, corrected figure. Varying mutation rates and generation times (described herein) were used to estimate historical population dynamics. The stairway plot shows that the B. pendula population has undergone bottlenecks that may be associated with some of the four known periods of major climate upheaval: the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K–Pg; green) the Eocene–Oligocene (E–Og; blue), the mid-Miocene (M; red) and the Pleistocene (Ple; purple). Data are median estimates from 200 bootstrap replicates (black lines) and 95% confidence intervals (shading). Tick marks along the x axis show estimates for the Matuyama–Brunhes (0.77 Mya), Calabrian (1.8 Mya) and Gelasian (2.58 Mya) borders, as well as the mid-Miocene disruption (14.5–14.8 Mya) and the E–Og (34 Mya) and K–Pg (66 Mya) events. As can be seen, no set of generation-time and mutation-rate assumptions yields an Ne dip near the Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary.