Figure 7
The cumulative error of (a) the infection forecasting, (b) the peak magnitude forecasting, and (c) the peak time (week) forecasting. These errors are defined as \(\sum _{i=1}^{n}\sum _{j=1}^{m}{e}_{ij}\), \(\sum _{i=1}^{n}\sum _{j=1}^{m}|FP{T}_{ij}-TP{T}_{i}|\) and \(\sum _{i=1}^{n}\sum _{j=1}^{m}|FP{M}_{ij}-TP{M}_{i}|\) respectively. In these equations, n is the number of years and m is the number of steps in the forecast. eij is the RMSE between forecast infection rate of jth step in ith year and the observed data; FPTij is the forecast peak time of jth step in ith year; TPTi is the true peak time in ith year, FPMij is the forecast peak magnitude of jth step in ith year, and TPMi is the true peak magnitude in ith year.
