Table 3 Gradients and differences in gradients of outcomes over time between pre- and post-vaccination periods, individuals’ own vaccination (18–64y).

From: COVID-19 vaccination, risk-compensatory behaviours, and contacts in the UK

Outcome	Period compared	Gradient (probability)		Difference in gradients: percentiles of simulated distribution
Outcome	Period compared	Pre vaccination	Post vaccination	2.5	50	97.5
Physical contacts with under 18s	− 50 to − 14 days versus 1–13 days	0.00048	0.00047	− 0.00019	− 0.00004	0.00012
Physical contacts with 18–69 years	− 50 to − 14 days versus 1–6 days	0.00042	− 0.00025	− 0.00195	− 0.00067	0.00059
Physical contacts with 18–69 years	− 50 to − 14 days versus 7–13 days	0.00042	− 0.00367	− 0.00475	− 0.00367	− 0.00264
Physical contacts with over 70s	− 50 to − 14 days versus 1–13 days	0.00041	0.00053	− 0.00003	0.00012	0.00026
Socially-distanced contacts with under 18s	− 50 to − 14 days versus 1–13 days	0.00029	0.00014	− 0.00037	− 0.00015	0.00007
Socially-distanced contacts with 18–69 years	− 50 to − 14 days versus 1–13 days	0.00038	− 0.00020	− 0.00100	− 0.00057	− 0.00014
Socially-distanced contacts with over 70s	− 50 to − 14 days versus 1–13 days	0.00042	0.00029	− 0.00030	− 0.00013	0.00005
Visits to others' homes	− 50 to − 14 days versus 1–13 days	0.00028	0.00016	− 0.00021	− 0.00012	0.00000
Others' visits to own home	− 50 to − 14 days versus 1–13 days	0.00003	0.00016	− 0.00001	0.00013	0.00027
Working/studying outside home	− 50 to − 14 days versus 1–13 days	0.00093	0.00063	− 0.00018	0.00031	0.00079
Taking public transport to work/place of education	− 50 to − 14 days versus 1–13 days	− 0.00012	− 0.00012	− 0.00022	− 0.00001	0.00023
Physical contacts with under 18s	− 50 to − 14 days versus 14–50 days	0.00048	0.00047	− 0.00012	− 0.00001	0.00009
Physical contacts with 18–69 years	− 50 to − 14 days versus 14–50 days	0.00042	0.00018	− 0.00048	− 0.00024	0.00000
Physical contacts with over 70s	− 50 to − 14 days versus 14–50 days	0.00041	0.00042	− 0.00009	0.00000	0.00001
Socially-distanced contacts with under 18s	− 50 to − 14 days versus 14–50 days	0.00029	0.00024	− 0.00018	− 0.00004	0.00009
Socially-distanced contacts with 18–69 years	− 50 to − 14 days versus 14–50 days	0.00038	0.00045	− 0.00013	0.00007	0.00027
Socially-distanced contacts with over 70s	− 50 to − 14 days versus 14–50 days	0.00042	0.00022	− 0.00031	− 0.00019	− 0.00008
Visits to others' homes	− 50 to − 14 days versus 14–50 days	0.00028	0.00007	− 0.00028	− 0.00021	− 0.00013
Others' visits to own home	− 50 to − 14 days versus 14–50 days	0.00003	0.00013	− 0.00001	0.00010	0.00021
Working/studying outside home	− 50 to − 14 days versus 14–50 days	0.00093	0.00113	− 0.00042	− 0.00019	0.00003
Taking public transport to work/place of education	− 50 to − 14 days versus 14–50 days	–0.00012	− 0.00014	− 0.00022	− 0.00002	0.000188

Percentiles of the distribution of 10,000 simulations from the Bayesian posterior distributions of the fitted GAM models for each outcome. Pre-vaccination was 50–14 days prior to first vaccination. Post-vaccination periods were 1–13 days (upper table) and 14–50 days (lower table). For 18–69 year-old physical contacts, the pre-period was divided into two parts to reflect the peak in probability around the time of vaccination. An example for interpretation: for physical contacts with under 18 year-olds, the pre-vaccination gradient for 50–14 days prior to vaccination was 0.0004 meaning that for each 100 days, the probability of any physical contacts with under 18 year-olds would increase by 0.04.

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Table 3 Gradients and differences in gradients of outcomes over time between pre- and post-vaccination periods, individuals’ own vaccination (18–64y).

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