Table 1 The net drifts, local drifts, and statistical parameters for overall, and by sex, region using age-period-cohort models during 2008–2022 in Guangzhou, China.

Net drifts

(95% CI)

− 3.76(− 5.96,− 1.51)*

− 4.93(− 7.14,− 2.67)*

− 1.64(− 3.87,0.65)

− 5.48(− 8.01,− 2.87)*

− 5.24(− 7.69,− 2.72)*

− 12.02(− 14.15,− 9.84)*

− 13.31(− 15.31,− 11.26)*

− 9.27(− 11.84,− 6.63)*

− 12.64(− 15.74,− 9.42)*

− 14.38(− 16.52,− 12.19)*

Local drifts (95% CI) of age group

 0–4

− 14.52(− 36.95,15.90)

− 15.59(− 38.64,16.12)

− 12.93(− 34.55,15.82)

− 15.44(− 42.81,25.01)

− 17.04(− 39.89,14.50)

− 19.05(− 28.07,− 8.91)*

− 19.26(− 27.70,− 9.84)*

− 19.01(− 29.42,− 7.05)*

− 21.24(− 34.14,− 5.82)*

− 21.07(− 29.85,− 11.19)*

 5–9

− 7.67(− 28.97,20.02)

− 10.23(− 31.80,18.17)

− 3.71(− 24.98,23.61)

− 10.38(− 35.85,25.20)

− 9.24(− 31.34,19.99)

− 4.29(− 18.63,12.58)

− 6.88(− 21.25,10.12)

− 0.74(− 15.65,16.81)

− 15.17(− 35.71,11.94)

− 2.72(− 17.47,14.67)

 10–14

− 10.44(− 29.04,13.03)

− 11.76(− 30.20,11.56)

− 8.14(− 27.32,16.11)

− 13.62(− 35.53,15.74)

− 11.16(− 30.81,14.07)

− 8.06(− 21.54,7.74)

− 10.29(− 23.50,5.19)

− 4.42(− 19.27,13.17)

− 12.54(− 33.72,15.41)

− 8.28(− 21.77,7.53)

 15–19

− 9.86(− 19.82,1.33)

− 11.23(− 21.38,0.24)

− 7.62(− 17.39,3.30)

− 11.46(− 23.51,2.48)

− 11.32(− 21.79,0.55)

− 20.49(− 29.07,− 10.87)*

− 21.90(− 30.20,− 12.61)*

− 18.05(− 27.52,− 7.34)*

− 18.07(− 29.48,− 4.82)*

− 23.34(− 32.10,− 13.45)*

 20–24

− 10.42(− 14.64,− 6.00)*

− 12.6(− 17.05,− 7.91)*

− 7.31(− 11.23,− 3.22)*

− 10.6(− 15.43,− 5.48)*

− 12.57(− 17.11,− 7.77)*

− 21.43(− 25.20,− 17.48)*

− 22.57(− 26.25,− 18.71)*

− 19.74(− 23.81,− 15.45)*

− 20.25(− 26.21,− 13.82)*

− 23.90(− 27.51,− 20.12)*

 25–29

− 11.46(− 14.34,− 8.49)*

− 13.12(− 16.08,− 10.05)*

− 8.86(− 11.64,− 5.98)*

− 13.16(− 16.37,− 9.83)*

− 12.96(− 16.11,− 9.69)*

− 21.60(− 24.34,− 18.76)*

− 22.73(− 25.27,− 20.09)*

− 19.23(− 22.49,− 15.83)*

− 20.71(− 24.77,− 16.44)*

− 24.10(− 26.77,− 21.33)*

 30–34

− 8.06(− 10.91,− 5.12)*

− 9.27(− 12.08,− 6.37)*

− 5.56(− 8.59,− 2.44)*

− 11.03(− 14.18,− 7.77)*

− 9.09(− 12.24,− 5.82)*

− 18.26(− 21.2,− 15.21)*

− 19.89(− 22.49,− 17.19)*

− 13.63(− 17.65,− 9.42)*

− 18.37(− 22.82,− 13.65)*

− 20.66(− 23.49,− 17.71)*

 35–39

− 5.56(− 8.67,− 2.34)*

− 7.13(− 10.1,− 4.07)*

− 2.18(− 5.73,1.50)

− 7.48(− 10.96,− 3.86)*

− 7.65(− 11.05,− 4.12)*

− 16.56(− 19.94,− 13.05)*

− 17.83(− 20.77,− 14.77)*

− 13.01(− 17.79,− 7.95)*

− 16.32(− 21.56,− 10.72)*

− 19.79(− 23.00,− 16.45)*

 40–44

− 2.38(− 5.94,1.30)

− 3.78(− 7.13,− 0.31)*

0.87(− 3.31,5.22)

− 2.84(− 6.76,1.25)

− 5.56(− 9.46,− 1.49)*

− 13.92(− 17.88,− 9.76)*

− 15.05(− 18.43,− 11.54)*

− 10.14(− 16.2,− 3.64)*

− 14.05(− 20.34,− 7.26)*

− 17.80(− 21.51,− 13.91)*

 45–49

− 0.50(− 4.36,3.51)

− 1.67(− 5.35,2.15)

1.99(− 2.39,6.57)

− 2.07(− 6.09,2.13)

− 2.78(− 7.22,1.87)

− 10.85(− 15.43,− 6.03)*

− 11.70(− 15.69,− 7.52)*

− 8.12(− 14.66,− 1.07)*

− 12.61(− 19.62,− 4.99)*

− 14.04(− 18.42,− 9.42)*

 50–54

3.11(− 1.23,7.65)

1.98(− 2.27,6.41)

4.83(0.22,9.65)*

− 0.35(− 4.54,4.03)

3.20(− 2.20,8.89)

− 4.51(− 10.22,1.56)

− 5.63(− 10.72,− 0.26)*

− 2.92(− 10.37,5.14)

− 8.09(− 16.09,0.68)

− 5.58(− 11.31,0.53)

 55–59

6.04(1.24,11.06)*

5.67(0.87,10.69)*

6.58(1.71,11.67)*

3.83(− 0.67,8.53)

5.87(− 0.18,12.29)

− 0.32(− 6.94,6.78)

− 1.11(− 7.24,5.44)

1.62(− 6.32,10.23)

− 1.09(− 9.80,8.46)

− 1.68(− 8.55,5.70)

 60–64

3.03(− 2.33,8.68)

2.89(− 2.53,8.61)

3.50(− 1.83,9.12)

3.03(− 2.02,8.35)

0.69(− 5.95,7.79)

− 5.23(− 12.55,2.71)

− 7.00(− 13.81,0.35)

− 1.72(− 10.64,8.08)

− 3.71(− 13.12,6.73)

− 8.39(− 15.94,− 0.16)*

 65–69

1.16(− 5.04,7.76)

0.89(− 5.43,7.63)

1.81(− 4.27,8.29)

1.26(− 4.54,7.43)

− 1.50(− 9.22,6.87)

− 5.55(− 15.10,5.08)

− 6.34(− 15.43,3.72)

− 3.83(− 14.78,8.54)

− 1.59(− 14.53,13.31)

− 10.39(− 19.94,0.30)

 70–74

− 1.02(− 8.24,6.76)

− 1.65(− 9.03,6.33)

− 0.04(− 7.08,7.53)

− 3.20(− 9.63,3.69)

− 0.94(− 10.58,9.74)

− 6.72(− 17.43,5.38)

− 8.18(− 18.26,3.14)

− 4.65(− 17.01,9.55)

− 8.64(− 22.17,7.25)

− 7.83(− 19.19,5.13)

 75–79

− 2.92(− 11.85,6.92)

− 3.21(− 12.69,7.31)

− 2.49(− 10.70,6.47)

− 6.21(− 13.97,2.25)

− 1.50(− 13.72,12.45)

− 7.25(− 19.82,7.28)

− 9.97(− 22.36,4.41)

− 3.54(− 16.89,11.95)

− 14.09(− 28.65,3.44)

− 4.01(− 18.70,13.33)

 80–84

− 1.76(− 15.67,14.44)

− 2.37(− 17.40,15.39)

− 1.14(− 13.57,13.07)

− 3.55(− 15.40,9.95)

− 1.33(− 20.71,22.78)

− 5.47(− 22.86,15.83)

− 4.45(− 21.85,16.82)

− 7.61(− 25.50,14.59)

− 2.78(− 22.68,22.25)

− 8.88(− 28.22,15.66)