Fig. 5: Willingness to join a bloc.

The expected payoff of joining (adopting the collective short-term retaliation strategy) and not joining (adopting the base/no and individual retaliation strategies) the bloc for countries in a potential bloc under the high bilateral interdependence (a–h) and the high unilateral interdependence (i–p) scenarios. Countries in the same row are in a potential bloc. Three-letter codes for countries/regions are used for clear illustration. The value of each bar is shown on the top of each bar. The description of country/region codes can be found in Supplementary Material.