Fig. 7: Projected occurrence of megadroughts of two consecutive years in the future climate based on Community Earth System Model-Large Ensemble (CESM-LE).
From: Famines and likelihood of consecutive megadroughts in India
a Area under drought estimated using PDSI less than −1.5 using the ensemble member two of CESM-LE, b PDSI estimated using the ensemble member two of the CESM-LE, c kernel density function of drought severity estimated using all the 40 ensemble members of CESM-LE. The vertical red line in c indicates the minimum drought severity of the megadroughts of 2 consecutive years, while the blue circle shows the drought severity of the 2002 megadrought. d SST anomaly composite for the June to August period for all the consecutive 2-year droughts that had PDSI less than −1.5 and area under drought more than 40% (total 11 events in all the 40 ensemble members of 2021–2100 period each), and e composite of PDSI for all the megadroughts that occurred in all the 40 ensemble members of CESM-LE.
