Fig. 2: Response of tree-ring width to to climate, NDVI and streamflow and streamflow reconstruction.
From: Ecological and societal effects of Central Asian streamflow variation over the past eight centuries
a Responses of the composite chronology to monthly mean temperatures, precipitation sum, composite streamflow, and NDVI. Correlations are computed from the previous year in July to the current year in September over the common period. The horizontal dashed lines indicate the 95% significance levels. b Actual and estimated total streamflow of the previous August to the current July for 1962–2009. c Comparison between tree-ring index and total July–April precipitation for 1962–2009. d Reconstructed August–July composite streamflow of the Syr Darya, Ili, Chu, and Jing rivers (blue curve) shown together with the two-tailed 95% bootstrap confidence limits (green) and ±1 root mean square error (RMSE) uncertainty estimates (gray) since 1225 CE. Red curve is a 21-year low pass filter. Reconstructed streamflow from 1225 to 1239, 1252 to 1260, 1361 to 1400, 1437 to 1467, 1494 to 1511, 1678 to 1692, 1693 to 1705/1731 to 1756, 1844 to 1905 and 1961 to 1996, corresponding to conquests of Batu Minien, Hulagu Khan’s conquests, rise of Timurid Empire, rise of Esen Choros, fall of Timurid Empire, defeat of Galdan Choros, recovery of Dzungar Khanate, Russian conquest and drying up of the Aral Sea, respectively. Blue and red boxes represent high and low streamflow conditions, respectively. Central horizontal line shows the average of streamflow estimates, and dotted lines indicate one standard deviation.
