Fig. 3: The occurrence probability of different AR occurrence frequencies in the northern winter based on the SPEAR model hindcasts (for week-3 lead time) and the corresponding ERA5 reanalysis.
From: Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction of atmospheric rivers in the Northern Winter
a ERA5 Level-1: 0 AR day/week, (b). ERA5 Level-2: 1–2 AR days/week, (c). ERA5 Level-3: 3–7 AR days/week. d SPEAR Level-1: 0 AR day/week, (e). SPEAR Level-2: 1–2 AR days/week, (f). SPEAR Level-3: 3–7 AR days/week, (g). Comparison of wintertime AR occurrence frequencies (from 0 day/week to 7 days/week) in week-3 over the western U.S. (30°-50°N, 115°-130°W), see box in panel (f) and the globe between the ERA5 reanalysis and week-3 SPEAR model hindcasts.
