Fig. 5: The reconstructed correlation skill of wintertime ARs over the North Pacific sector.
From: Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction of atmospheric rivers in the Northern Winter
The (a) original and (b) reconstructed correlation skill for week-2 lead time. The (c) original and (d) reconstructed correlation skill for week-3 lead time. a–c display the original forecast correlations as illustrated in Fig. 2a, b, specifically focusing on the North Pacific sector. The reconstructed correlation skill is calculated using the APT method with the first three MPMs. The stippling denotes the region with correlation significant at 5% level considering the effective sample size. e The correlation between the ERA5-based and the SPEAR-predicted time series of the first five MPMs as a function of lead times from week-1 to week-4. The dashed lines indicate the 5% significance level for each MPM after considering the effective sample size.
