Fig. 7: The modulation of climate modes on correlation skill of wintertime AR frequency with lead times from week-1 to week-4 over the western U.S. (30°-50°N, 115°-130°W).
From: Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction of atmospheric rivers in the Northern Winter
The composite prediction correlation coefficients are estimated based on the SPEAR during positive (orange curve), negative (blue curve), and neutral (gray curve) phases of (a). ENSO, (b). PNA, and (c). AO. The black curve indicates raw correlation over the western U.S. considering the whole period during 2000–2019. The correlation skill is estimated between the SPEAR hindcasts and ERA5 reanalysis.
