Fig. 3: Illustration of differential treatment response predictions and local predictor importance for different treatment scenarios.

a Predicted response for actual and alternative treatments for three patients randomly drawn from strata that were modeled to be moderately likely (Patient 1), highly likely (Patient 2), and less likely (Patient 3) to respond, respectively, to the actual antidepressant class prescribed. Results are shown for the representative model (feed-forward DNN). b “Force plots”⁴⁷ illustrating local predictor importance (by SHAP score) for each of the treatment scenarios for Patient 1 from a. The patient was a 49-year-old male with co-morbid alcohol used disorder, depressed mood/anhedonia, anxiety symptoms, fatigue/loss of energy, and 8 co-occurring medications prescribed in the past 3 months, who was started on an SSRI. The directions and strengths of each predictor are shown in directed bars in either blue or red. Only predictors with strengths greater than a threshold level are captioned. The bars denote predictors that decrease (blue) or increase (red) the likelihood of response from base value (i.e., sample mean response probability). Longer bars indicate stronger contributions to predicted response.