Table 1 Periods of change in trends of forest losses according to literature and differences from our market-driven counterfactual simulations
From: Trends in tropical forest loss and the social value of emission reductions
Factor # | Documented periods with domestic policies or other impacts on the level of forest loss | Forest cover losses (in million hectares) and emissions (gigatonnes CO2) (in brackets) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source and reason | Country | Period (yr) | Type of forest loss phase | (1) Observed forest losses | (2) Market-driven (counterfactual) forest losses | (1)−(2) Residual: non-market-driven forest losses | |
1 | Ref. 51 - Command-and-control: agreements with meat companies and soy moratorium | Brazil | 2004–2012 | Reduction | 24.630 (9.31) | 31.285 (11.83) | −6.655 (−2.52) |
2 | Ref. 20 - Climate phenomenon El Niño | Brazil | 2015–2017 | Excess | 12.120 (4.58) | 8.909 (3.37) | +3.211 (+1.21) |
3 | Ref. 18 - Armed conflicts | DR Congo | 2012–2019 | Excess | 9.260 (3.84) | 5.467 (2.27) | +3.793 (+1.57) |
4 | Ref. 64 - Command-and-control: consistent permitting rules and export taxes | Indonesia | 2000–2005 | Reduction | 5.314 (2.93) | 9.724 (5.35) | −4.410 (−2.43) |
5 | Ref. 17 - Public spending (additional harvesting allowances) before elections | Indonesia | 2010–2019 | Excess | 15.980 (8.80) | 11.697 (6.44) | +4.283 (+2.36) |
Sum | 67.304 (29.46) | 67.082 (29.26) | +0.222 (+0.20) | ||||
