Fig. 1: Decadal changes in IOD variability and parameters of the IOD model.

a Timeseries of the centered 30-year moving variance [°C2] of the reanalysis DMI (black line) and the reconstructed DMI variance by using the IOD model (blue line) during 1900–2022. b The 30-year moving variance of the band-pass filtered and normalized DMI for each calendar month (shading). The peak month has a 30-year moving DMI variance and each year is indicated by the black curve. 30-year monthly moving timeseries of (c) damping rate λm [month−1], (d) ENSO-forcing parameter βm [month−1], and (e) noise standard deviation σm [°C month−1] for the IOD model. The black contour lines are the zero contours.