Research articles

Side events of annual UNFCCC Conferences of Parties are one of several channels by which non-state actors influence climate negotiation. By analysing discourse and networks of actors, this research examines how topics evolve over time and how energy interest groups gain access to agenda setting.

Western boundary currents flow along the western edge of subtropical oceans, transporting heat polewards, and are integral in the climate system. Using high-resolution models, this work shows that western boundary currents will shift shorewards as a result of increased stratification driven by climate change.

Using community data of 581 angiosperm and 172 Lepidoptera species, the authors consider the impacts of extreme weather events (EWE) on the timing of life events (phenology). They show high responsiveness of phenology to EWEs and highlight the potential for EWEs to drive phenological mismatches.

The degree to which the tropical circulation changes with warming is not well known. Here, the authors use an emergent constraint to show that the tropical Hadley circulation is weakening more intensely than previously thought, resulting in stronger precipitation increases in subtropical regions.

Land-based carbon dioxide removals are critical for meeting the low-warming targets, yet their availability is limited when avoiding excessive risks to sustainability. Scenario-based analysis suggests that they should only be used to compensate for emissions from hard-to-abate sectors and overshoot.

This study uses available models to show intensified Atlantic multidecadal variability under global warming. Warmer and fresher waters, along with slowed overturning circulation, reduce the mixed layer, intensifying sea surface temperature variability, suggesting increased global climate extremes.

The 12 months before July 2024 were more than 1.5 °C warmer than the pre-industrial baseline. Using climate models, the author shows that the first year that exceeds 1.5 °C of warming most probably also occurs within the first 20-year period with an average temperature that exceeds temperature targets.

What a first year with temperature 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial baseline implies for long-term temperature goals is unclear. Here the authors show that such a first year above the baseline is highly likely to occur within the first 20-year period with average warming of 1.5 °C.

Analysis of 42 years of daily sea surface temperature data shows increasing persistence of anomalies. These changes, which are attributed to deepening of the mixed layer, reduced oceanic forcing and reduced damping associated with stronger stratification, have implications for marine heatwave duration.

Climate change will impact financial stability, but the quantitative evidence on the magnitude of such risks is still rare. With a forward-looking structural credit-risk model, researchers map how physical risks can be amplified through financial leverage and generate cross-border climate risks.

Various policy instruments are proposed to meet mitigation targets, yet the synergistic and trade-off effects of interactions are less understood. With rich scenarios of policy mixes, the authors demonstrate that in most cases these interactions will delay the achievement of carbon targets in China.

Companies have set emissions reduction targets globally, yet whether they are held accountable for the outcomes remains uncertain. By examining the emissions targets that ended in 2020, researchers find low awareness of the failed targets and limited negative reactions from different stakeholders.

How the carbon stocks of the Arctic–Boreal Zone change with warming is not well understood. Here the authors show that wildfires and large regional differences in net carbon fluxes offset the overall increasing CO₂ uptake.

To understand the potential for seaweed as a Blue Carbon strategy, the authors quantify carbon burial under 20 globally distributed seaweed farms. They attribute an average of 1.06 ± 0.74 tCO₂e ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ to seaweed farms, and show increased accumulation of carbon with farm age.

Climate change and disturbances are changing forest tree composition, but it is not clear if disturbances assist trees in tracking their climate ranges. This study shows that the impact of disturbance on range shifts is dependent on the tree species and type of disturbance.

The authors constructed an eco-climate model to project climate change impacts on populations of the spongy moth (Lymantria dispar) and its pathogen Entomophaga maimaiga. They show that climate change will sharply reduce E. maimaiga infection rates and subsequently increase spongy moth defoliation.

Climate change is impacting mountain regions and the agricultural livelihood of residents, and will continue to do so. In this study, the authors survey farmers in ten African mountain regions to understand their perceptions of climate change impacts and identify adaptation opportunities and constraints.

Changes in the Arctic could impact the oceanic carbon sequestration of the region. Here the authors consider regional biogeochemistry, including coastal erosion and river inputs, to show a 40% reduction in the biological carbon pump to 2100 under climate change.

The authors use ground-based records and remote-sensing data to show that late spring frost delays the timing of spring leaf-out in the subsequent year by reducing photosynthetic productivity. Integrating late spring frost into models can increase the accuracy of predictions of spring timings and carbon cycling.

Arctic warming will decrease sea ice cover and increase the possibility of intensified marine heatwaves. Using a high-resolution model, the authors show that this intensification, combined with strengthened short-term temperature variability and enhanced stratification, could threaten the ecosystem.