Assessing the Odds of Winning
No one can provide a precise probability—no crystal ball here—but we can look at trends and expert insights:
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Strong Constitutional Precedent
The 14th Amendment guarantees birthright citizenship, affirmed by Wong Kim Ark (1898) and reaffirmed by courts striking down EO 14160 politico.com+12supremecourt.gov+12en.wikipedia.org+12. -
Lower Court Rejections
Every temporary injunction—from Washington to Maryland—has held that Trump's EO is “likely unconstitutional” axios.com+3theguardian.com+3en.wikipedia.org+3nypost.com+5en.wikipedia.org+5supremecourt.gov+5. -
Supreme Court Avoids Constitutionality Question
The justices sidestepped whether the EO violates the Constitution, focusing solely on the scope of injunctions washingtonpost.com. That leaves the constitutional arguments intact and moving forward in district courts—and possibly back to SCOTUS. -
Strategic Shift to Class Actions
Experts say converting to class actions is the most viable path to broad, uniform relief. Courts can now issue nationwide or class-wide injunctions if certified—something federal plaintiffs are already requesting supremecourt.gov+13axios.com+13apnews.com+13politico.com+1reuters.com+1.
? Rough Estimate
While we can’t assign a percentage, here’s a conceptual breakdown:
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Constitutional Merit: Very strong—legal history strongly supports birthright citizenship.
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Procedural Roadblocks: The Supreme Court's ruling made nationwide relief harder but explicitly allowed class-wide suits.
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Current Momentum: Lower courts have repeatedly sided with plaintiffs. Class-action filings show strategic adaptation.
Bottom line: Plaintiffs likely have better than average odds—perhaps in the 60–80% range—if and only if courts certify class status and maintain constitutional grounds.
