Table 3 Calibration of 3-year and 5-year OS by the nomogram-revised risk index.

NRI defined	t (year)	Estimation by Kaplan–Meier method								Predicted OS in validation cohort
NRI defined		Observed OS in derivation cohort				Observed OS in validation cohort				Predicted OS in validation cohort
Risk group		No.	Ev.	S (t)	SE	No.	Ev.	S (t)	SE	\(\overline {\mathit{S}}\)(t)
Low risk	3	298	39	0.878	0.021	352	40	0.896	0.018	0.892
Low risk	5	298	39	0.866	0.022	352	40	0.854	0.023	0.859
Intermediate low risk	3	471	140	0.751	0.022	447	75	0.820	0.020	0.823
Intermediate low risk	5	471	140	0.664	0.026	447	75	0.787	0.024	0.767
Intermediate high risk	3	367	161	0.592	0.028	423	113	0.716	0.024	0.701
Intermediate high risk	5	367	161	0.486	0.031	423	113	0.684	0.027	0.628
High risk	3	162	83	0.475	0.043	223	85	0.548	0.038	0.539
High risk	5	162	83	0.408	0.045	223	85	0.525	0.040	0.442
Very high risk	3	85	63	0.272	0.055	137	79	0.351	0.048	0.349
Very high risk	5	85	63	0.212	0.053	137	79	0.332	0.049	0.242

OS overall survival, NRI nomogram-revised risk index, t follow-up time, Ev. number of events, S (t) observed overall survival probabilities at the follow-up time, SE standard error, \(\overline {\mathit{S}}\) (t) predictive overall survival probabilities from the derivation cohort by applying the nomogram-revised risk index to the baseline survival estimate at the individual level in the validation cohort, and averaging across each risk group.

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