Table 2 Shifts in properties of thermal performance curves (TPCs) for models of predicted suitability of malaria transmission, S(T), due to temperature fluctuations

Model & Fluctuation Regime	T_opt ( °C)	T_max ( °C)	T_breadth ( °C)	S(T_opt)
2) Empirical fluctuating − 3 traits
DTR 9	−1.2	−0.8	−0.8	−32.0%
DTR 12	−1.4	−1.8	−1.2	−33.8%
3) Trait-level RS − 3 traits
DTR 9	−0.1	0.0	0.0	−10.0%
DTR 12	−0.2	0.0	0.0	−17.1%
4) Trait-level RS - all traits
DTR 9	−0.2	+4.0	+9.0	−18.1%
DTR 12	−0.4	+5.3	+11.9	−30.6%
5) S(T)-level RS
DTR 9	−0.1	+4.0	+9.0	−19.9%
DTR 12	+0.1	+5.3	+11.9	−32.0%

Differences in thermal optimum (T_opt), thermal maximum (T_max), and thermal breadth (T_breadth), and the percent change in median S(T) predicted at T_opt, compared to the constant temperature model (model 1). Fluctuating models are parameterized with trait TPCs fit from empirical data (model 2: “Empirical fluctuating”) or are calculated using rate summation (RS). Rate summation was used only for the three traits with empirical data (model 3: “Trait-level RS − 3 traits”), for all traits (model 4: “Trait-level RS - all traits”), or directly on the TPC for suitability, S(T), at constant temperatures (model 5: “S(T)-level RS”). Diurnal temperature ranges (DTR) = 9 and 12 °C. Differences calculated using median values. See Table S3 for original parameter values for each model.

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