Fig. 3: Regional glacier mass response under stabilization and overshoot scenarios of the GFDL-ESM2M climate model.
From: Irreversible glacier change and trough water for centuries after overshooting 1.5 °C
a, Regional mass differences between the 3.0 → 1.5 °C overshoot and the 1.5 °C stabilization scenario for all 19 glacier regions and the sum over the three clusters. Clusters were selected from these mass differences and represent regions with similar overshoot influence on mass change (Methods). b, Nineteen glacier regions colour-coded by the three clusters, with dots showing glacier locations. c–e, Glacier mass projections for the sum of each cluster with a slow response (c), a small overshoot influence (d) and a fast response (e). The percent refers to the cluster’s fraction of the 2020 global mass. f,g, Regrowth after 3.0 → 1.5 °C overshoot described by the year 2500 minus the minimum glacier mass versus the glacier mass in 2500 under 1.5 °C stabilization (f) and the regional glacier-area weighted glacier surface slope (g). h, Mass difference in 2500 between 1.5 °C stabilization and 3.0 → 1.5 °C overshoot versus the maximum regional temperature difference of the same scenarios. Numbers are given as a 21-year centred rolling mean in percent relative to 2020. Past changes from 2000 to 2019 are shown in black in c–e. All scenarios and regions are shown individually with their 2020 glacier mass in Extended Data Fig. 3. Basemap in b from Natural Earth (https://www.naturalearthdata.com/).
