Fig. 2: Attributed 1990–2020 GMT increases by emitter group.
From: High-income groups disproportionately contribute to climate extremes worldwide
a, Median GMT increase over 1990–2020 and the shares attributed to global top 10%, 1% and 0.1%. Hatched areas indicate the warming for each group based on an equal per capita contribution to warming. CIFs indicating the group’s contribution to global warming relative to the average contribution are given above the bars. Vertical lines represent the 5th–95th confidence intervals from natural variability and uncertainty in the global temperature response. Circles highlight median values from the sensitivity analysis (Methods; the lower circle is CO2-based emissions and the upper circle is non-CO2-based emissions). Estimates are based on 600 ensemble members each. b, Median hypothetical GMT increase from 1990–2020 if everyone emitted like the given income groups, with the 5th–95th confidence intervals represented as vertical lines. Estimates are based on 600 ensemble members. c, Regional breakdown of the global top 10%,1% and 0.1% in 2019. d, Global (solid line) and regional (symbols) income distributions in 2019. e, Same as a but for the regional top 10%, 1% and 0.1% in the United States, the EU27, India and China. Grey bars highlight the median GMT increase attributable to each region as a whole. Two CIFs are given: the lighter (darker) value is relative to the country’s equal share (actual emissions) and measures global (regional) inequality. Vertical lines represent the 5th–95th confidence intervals from natural variability and uncertainty in the global temperature response. Circles highlight median values from the sensitivity analysis. Estimates are based on 600 ensemble members each.
